Jared Tanna is associate director of insight at Canvas8.

2020 was meant to be the year that sustainable transport really hit the mainstream, with 

 giving people an easy way to put aside their flight shame or love for gas-guzzling cars. However, with COVID-19 diminishing people’s faith in the safety of 

, eco options are being threatened by modes of transit that feel more 

The popularity of car-based entertainment (i.e. drive-in cinemas and concerts) suggests that a return to 

 early on in the pandemic. Additionally, a 

 around the world now value access to their private vehicles more than they did pre-COVID-19. Yet at the same time, cycling has also seen a boom as people have sought socially-distanced ways of getting around. Premium brands like 

 are catering to emerging niches, while national campaigns from 

 are encouraging the growth of the two-wheeled community.

The future of brands in this sector is entirely dependent on how the tensions between car culture and eco-friendly alternatives play out post-pandemic. If remote working continues, how can brands get the most out of more 

 travel? If the recession cuts access to services, how can brands serve those impacted by mobility limitations? And if car culture sustains its comeback, how can brands ensure safety for cyclists on the road?

In this chapter of the Canvas8’s 2021 Expert Outlook, John Surico, a research fellow at the Center for an Urban Future, explains how 2021 could be the year that cargo bikes make in-roads with consumers; Dr. Susan Kenyon, principal lecturer in transport studies at Canterbury Christ Church University, highlights how transport innovators will need to grow a social conscience; and Claudia Adriazola-Steil, a director at the WRI Ross Center For Sustainable Cities, explains why safety advances could make urban transit more equitable.

Freed from the commute, people will embrace travel in their neighbourhoods

John Surico, research fellow at the Center for an Urban Future

The fact that people are physically restricted and 

 getting around is affecting mobility and city flow more than anything. 2021 will be defined by whether COVID-related restrictions will stick. Will the cycling boom stay around? Will public transit win back trust in time to ease congestion on the roads? Will remote work become permanent? As a result, the key theme to look out for in 2021 is whether people continue to move around locally or not. That’s going to decide what the sector looks like in the coming years.

 conversation is not going anywhere, it’s just going to ramp up. That was a dream of urban planners before COVID-19 and the pandemic really made that a reality. Companies need to rethink how it affects them and the needs of those making more short trips within their local areas. It’s not the death of the city, it’s the rise of the neighbourhood centre. Increasingly, people are just staying in their neighbourhood and buying local, exploring nearby green spaces and supporting local shops. If trips remain more local, then companies will need to respond to a much smaller map of getting around.

The 15-minute city can promote a more sustainable way of living

Distances will be compressed. As people’s needs turn to short-distance travel, the long-held promise of micro-mobility comes into its own, as does cycling and walking. However, at the same time, there is more road traffic owing to people’s reliance on deliveries, distrust in public transit, and an increase in people using their cars as a form of PPE. The landscape is shifting as local authorities start to rethink cycle lanes as mobility lanes. They’re not just lanes for cycling, they’re lanes for scooters, they’re lanes for cargo bikes, they’re lanes for people with accessibility issues. As the roads get busier, people are having to think more carefully about their place within the system – confronting the roads where it might be unsafe or finding faster ways to get around the traffic.

Micro-mobility will, of course, continue to grow for those A-to-B journeys, especially in the UK, where trials are proving successful. But one big thing to watch out for will be e-cargo bikes. They will be a lot more visible in 2021. DHL has led the charge for many years while brands like 

 have made big investments. Pedal Me just penned a huge deal with Jump bikes to take e-bikes off streets and into parking zones, all by cargo bike. While these are commercial deals, people are going to start realising they can do practical things a lot easier without having to rent a van or car. Families, in particular, could benefit from the e-cargo bike boom as they need more practical ways to ferry their kids around locally that also feel safe and secure.

At least for the next year or so, I think the big fight is going to be between light goods vehicles, cars, and micro-mobility users. That’s going to be the big dynamic going forward. Cyclists and micro-mobility users will think more about safety but consumers, generally, will be driven by renewed localism. Brands that understand their role within these compressed distances will do well. This will inform everything from the mobility companies ensuring safe usage on busy roads to local shops creating more space for things like bike racks to logistics companies engaging properly with local community needs.

People are exploring new and safer ways of travelling by road

People will want transport companies to focus on accommodating diverse audiences

Dr. Susan Kenyon, principal lecturer in transport studies and travel behaviour change at Canterbury Christ Church University

There’s a lot of excitement around mobility-as-a-service at the moment. As more people rely on digital platforms to book, pay, and plan their travel, there is a demand for doing it all in one place. But brands and companies need to start thinking about the behavioural aspects of bringing those services together, not just making it easier for people to travel in the way they always have. 2021 could see brands taking a socially conscious view of these services – thinking more about inclusion and sustainability rather than just moving faster from A to B.

Mobility exclusion isn’t anything new but it will be more important next year. With the predicted downturn in employment and effects of the recession, particularly for young people, the economic impact of COVID-19 will play a role in the affordability of transport and the options available to people. Transport for Greater Manchester has done a lot of work pre-pandemic to ensure mobility inclusion happens, including a 

 that offers free and discounted travel for job-seekers and new workers.

The last six to eight months have seen a compulsory return to the local. There is an opportunity to make that last and change people’s behaviours for the better while they are doing it. While there is a lot less long-distance travel, people are still using their cars locally. Cars will provide people with that sense of safety, and the difficulty in encouraging people to try out public transport alternatives could be that they simply don’t know enough about them. There is a lack of infrastructure for things like bus services at a local level but also a lack of knowledge and information about them.

There has never been, to my knowledge, an instance of long-term travel behaviour change as a result of a short-term crisis. This disruption might last a week or two, but not a long time

. It’s a Danish mobility-as-a-service company that’s factoring sustainability and inclusion into its apps. It’s trying to make MaaS work for a new group of people and for new social purposes. Not only does it provide that convenience of planning, booking, and paying all in one place, but it is embedding features that help people on low incomes. One feature allows people to top-up their travel in a shop with cash, so if you are unbanked, you don’t have to be excluded from transport simply because you don’t have a bank account.

So, they’ve got the idea – the social conscience and the software – but how can we make that work to change people’s behaviour? It’s also about presenting people with different options as well and working with transit authorities to prioritise certain groups of people. So, if you drive, you will emit this much carbon, but if you get the train, you’ll emit this much carbon. Helping people to see that information is key to making a difference to their travel behaviour. A lot of new mobility innovations prioritise taking what we already have and making it easier to get around. We don’t need another Oyster card, we need something that’s helping people behave environmentally or helping transit authorities be much more inclusive. Brands that design an experience around women or minority ethnic groups or low-income groups are more likely to have a big impact. We have enough solutions for helping people knock a minute off their walk to the office.

There is real potential for behaviour change at the moment. Brands can help support these changes – a return to local or more sustainable options – to continue, but they have to intervene. There has never been, to my knowledge, an instance of long-term travel behaviour change as a result of a short-term crisis. This disruption might last a week or two, but not a long time. It requires companies and decision-makers to intervene and support people in this moment to create a more equitable and positive system everybody can get around in.

Cars and cycles can coexist on streets, but certain changes are needed

Calmer cities will invite the next generation of cyclists

Claudia Adriazola-Steil, director of health and road safety at the WRI Ross Center For Sustainable Cities

Leading up to 2020, we had seen a rapid decoupling of mobilisation and motorisation. But now, due to COVID-19, there are more cars and motorcycles occupying the infrastructure. This makes moving people around more difficult. Why? Because of increased congestion, more traffic crashes, worsening air quality, and worsening equality. Brands who are working in sustainable mobility in 2021 should be focusing on precisely this problem – how can we share that limited space in a more equal way?

If you look at cities like Paris, London, or New York, the issues facing sustainable travel are all about carving out and wrestling those spaces away from cars. It’s important that 2021 is the year that brands make mass transportation, walking, cycling, and micro-mobility appealing enough for people not to choose their cars. Pop-up bike lanes appeared in places like Berlin and London, which was a bit of a silver lining during the peak of the pandemic. They alleviated a public health problem during COVID-19 but we cannot create another public health problem by having cyclists feel vulnerable on infrastructure that has not prioritised safety. When you have 1,100 new motorbikes joining the roads of Lima in Peru each day, what happens to the safety of those opting for the sustainability of cycling?

We cannot continue to think about biking in the city as something designed around young men who are willing to take more risks. We have to think about designing it around the needs of everyone

Appealing to safety will be key for mobility brands in 2021. There are three areas that will help cyclists and pedestrians feel safer. One is speed. If a person is hit at 30 kilometres per hour, they have an 80% chance of survival. If you cannot have all your network at 30 kilometres per hour in your city, then you have to provide more protection in the lane – at least 2.2 metres wide in one direction to allow cyclists to overtake one another. The second is to think of the cycle infrastructure as a network. It’s not enough to put up a beautiful cycle lane as one avenue and then call it a day. Thinking about the network means thinking about the main and side roads and the fluctuation of speeds across lots of different destinations. The third aspect of safety is looking at intersections. Why? Because this is exactly the point where you are going to see the most difficult conflicts between a vehicle and a bicycle or a scooter.

2021 will also be about including those communities and getting to know what their concerns and needs are. New York City, for the first time, had more users of the shared Citi Bike system than ever. Why? Because the streets were calmer, the streets felt and were safer, and this opened up its audience. We saw it in Buenos Aires too, where roads that were only dedicated to cars are now sharing the space with bicycles. We cannot continue to think about biking in the city as something designed around young men who are willing to take more risks. We have to think about designing it around the needs of everyone. For example, women need more perceived safety as well as real safety. If you look at traffic crashes, the majority of the fatalities are among men and young men, who are more willing to take higher risks. That is not the case with women as they will not take the same amount of risk. That’s why we have to provide safer cycle lanes and safer infrastructure to also create better travel equity and calmer spaces for travel.

John Surico is a journalist and urban planning researcher. As the regional focus editor for the Oxford Urbanists, a worldwide network of practitioners, and research fellow at the Center for an Urban Future, a leading think tank in New York City, he reports on issues of mobility, open space, and sustainability for publications such as The New York Times,Vice, and CityLab.

Dr. Susan Kenyon is the principal lecturer in transport, society, and politics at Canterbury Christ Church University with a background in the behaviour change of travel and mobility exclusion. She was formerly a behaviour change consultant for Transport for London.

Claudia Adriazola-Steil is the director of health and road safety at the WRI Ross Center for Sustainable Cities, where she focuses on the intersection of sustainable mobility, climate change, public health and equity.

Global

Getting Around

Could the 15-minute city gain ground post-pandemic? What safety concerns will arise as people get back on the road? And how can mobility-as-a-service democratise transit? In this part of the 2021 Expert Outlook, we speak to three experts about the rising importance of safe and inclusive transport.

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