Luana Sambell is a behavioural analyst on the Cultural Intelligence team at Canvas8. With an MSc in consumer behaviour, she’s interested in how pop- and sub-cultures shape people’s preferences, judgements, and decision-making. Outside of work, you can usually find her cycling around London looking for dumplings or natural wine.

From raising sourdough starters to concocting makeshift cocktails, the world of food and drink was largely confined to people’s homes in 2020 – and it’s likely to remain there in 2021. People have gained a newfound appreciation for their kitchens, with research carried out in the early months of the pandemic finding that 

 were cooking more often while in lockdown. At the same time, brands have enabled them to experiment with food and drink domestically by offering services such as 

home delivery from Michelin-starred restaurants

But not all food and drink experiences have been frivolous during this year of uncertainty. People have also been taking a more conscious approach to their diets, whether that’s by looking for diverse communities and brands to support or eating to improve their physical and mental health. Indeed, 

 around the world say they plan to eat and drink healthier because of the pandemic. In response, 

 is offering vitamin sachets as a quick way to enhance people’s immunity, while the rise of low- and non-alcoholic spirits from brands such as 

 is helping to promote mindful drinking, and 

 are turning eating into a stress-busting activity.

In this chapter of Canvas8’s 2021 Expert Outlook, Dr. Anna Masing, an academic and food, drink, and culture journalist, explains why the future of the food industry may be defined by community; Lydia Richards, a sommelier and founder of Vino Concierge, provide insights into how people are consciously drinking; and Eve Turow-Paul, an author and consumer behaviourist, explores the ways in which diets will diversify in the coming year.

People will be hungry for equitable access to food

Hungry: Avocado Toast, Instagram Influencers, and Our Search for Connection and Meaning

Prior to COVID, the way we experienced food cultures was through travel. Now, that’s pivoted to a local lens where interest in Community-Supported Agriculture initiatives (CSAs) has skyrocketed in the US, and people familiarised themselves with local farmers and found that there’s a lot to be explored. Food culture has become a bit boring because you can fly halfway around the world and eat the same things. Those indigenous ways of farming and cooking have been pushed away because people eat the same thing year-round and want the same thing available to them whether they’re in Shanghai or New York City. But there’ll be more local exploration happening in 2021 as we’re being forced to investigate our own regions and neighbourhoods.

A major force in 2020, especially in the US, has been the Black Lives Matter movement. It’s already impacted food culture but will play a bigger role moving forward. Systematic racism is very much still a part of the food system. In 2021, there’s going to be an increasing acceptance and celebration of diverse ways of eating as ingredients, traditions, and food cultures become less homogenised.

People are waking up to the benefits of buying local and seasonal produce

Food culture has become white-washed around the world and I would anticipate the pendulum is going to start swinging back in the other direction. People will start to think about what grows locally, who the local talent is, how we are celebrating skill sets, traditions, origins, and creativity. There’s also a deep yearning for connection and community that is going to transform the way people identify and connect with food and beverage brands. Most likely, brands that do a good job of creating community were already doing a really good job at conjuring this sense of connection, and that’s just going to grow in importance in the years to come.

Another behavioural shift during the pandemic is that people are yearning for a sense of impact and purpose as a lot of us feel helpless right now. We know that climate change is present and not being dealt with with the same immediacy. Because of this, people are wasting less food, growing food at home, or learning to cook, and these habits and behaviours will be long-lasting. All this indoor time has brought people in touch with their yearnings to use their bodies, to be outside in nature, to commune with nature, and to utilise all of their senses. And a lot of people are realising that doing these sustainable things is delicious, fun, and fulfilling. Whether that means eating more varieties of locally grown produce, wasting less food, or exploring new things to eat, there’s an openness and willingness for sustainability. It’s interesting to see people wanting to make an impact on the climate and that’s not going anywhere.

We know that climate change is present and not being dealt with with the same immediacy. Because of this, people are wasting less food, growing food at home, or learning to cook

We all need to feel safe and in control, we need to feel like we belong to a community, we need to feel like our lives have meaning, but the way that we are fulfilling those needs has changed pretty dramatically. People are also putting their mental health above their physical health to a certain degree, especially when it comes to dining. And brands should not be shying away from the mental health issues that are happening worldwide.

There is also a communitarian side of wellbeing that is being underfed, and my expectation is, as soon as it’s allowed, people will flock to immersive community-based experiences. We know that nothing brings people together more than eating. There are a number of brands who have created a wider system and are making it more of a lifestyle. For example, there is 

, which created the Sweet Life Festival. The festival wasn’t created to sell salad – it was made to create a sense of community and bonding among customers.

Lockdown measures have made home-based culinary exploration the norm

Without traditional expertise, DIY discovery will be the new normal

, food and culture writer and founder of Black Book

2020 was about deconstructing everything because the world has literally fallen apart around us. In 2020, the question is ‘how do we rebuild it?’ Across the industry, there’s rebuilding and recalibrating that coincides with decolonising and dismantling. In multiple discussions I’ve been having in 2020 about decolonising the food industry, there is an audience for complicated stories. The readership for food media is diverse. People want deep food stories, they want to be challenged, and these stories need to shift the perspective on their audience – it’s not just a White audience anymore. There’s so much more in that audience. Mainstream food media hasn’t accepted the challenge yet. In the US, 

 has done it, but it took a lot to have a subtle change. It’s a brand to look out for to see if they follow through.

In 2020, It’s been especially difficult for big brands to pivot in a useful, graceful, and meaningful way because they’re on a trajectory. It’s been smaller brands or individuals who’ve made the most impact during the pandemic because they’re able to adjust and react quickly to how things are going. There are many individuals within the food media who are changing the industry. In the US, the team behind 

 has changed food conversation and they’ve been doing this for years. In Puerto Rico, 

 is changing the way food is being thought about. In the UK, Jonathan Nunn’s 

 newsletter is re-centring the meaning of food within communities, which is important because food has shifted into community spaces and neighbourhoods. The way the consumer world works now, we have to think and deal with things in a lot more complicated and nuanced ways, which newsletters are able to address. Obviously, blogs did that beforehand, but the cultural context was different then.

Restaurants and bars were once seen as a place to gain knowledge when you go out – having that interaction with front-of-house staff is a gateway to learning about food and drink

Another key behavioural shift that’s happened in 2020 is around knowledge. There is a knowledge quest that’s happening from the consumer. Restaurants and bars were once seen as a place to gain knowledge when you go out – having that interaction with front-of-house staff is a gateway to learning about food and drink. However, that kind of conduit has been thinned out. It will be interesting to see where people will find that knowledge instead. It will still be in the restaurants, but that might not be the driving force. Instead, it could be in things like reading the wine list before the reservation. In terms of delivery, again, people want to have that information and connection, like getting a delivery box with an online tutorial. It feels engaging as they learn. People will respond to prompts to go and investigate on their own, conducting their own research.

Food and drink are coming back to neighbourhoods and communities. It’s about comfort, and the key to that is trust. People want to gain knowledge but they want that knowledge to feel trustworthy, and they also want to trust the people they’re spending money and time with. I’ve seen this in wine shops and wine bars. A lot of neighbourhood wine bars were scraping by, but since lockdown, people are more likely to walk around their neighbourhood where they’ve discovered these places. Having a nice bottle of wine has been a perk when you can’t do a lot. And having the model of a small grocery that can deliver, be a part of and support the community, and also somewhere you can go to have a chat with the owner has been the key, not necessarily just the wine. In London, 

 in Elephant and Castle have done incredibly well with this.

Shared dining experiences have been sorely missed throughout 2020

Conscious consumption will level up in the post-pandemic era

Lydia Richards, certified sommelier and founder of Vino Concierge

With everything going on with the pandemic and civil unrest, it’s been a year where people have tried to find alternative ways not just to drink, but to really work on their mental health and physiological health. I’m seeing this through CBD products that have been slowly coming towards us and becoming more accepted, even outside the US. On the health-conscious side, we’ll see food and drink with a lot less sugary, artificial flavours. People are being more conscious about the drinks they’re putting into their bodies. The blend of hard kombuchas, hard seltzers, and low-alcohol cocktails – it’s all merging into one big category we will see moving forward into 2021.

Since 2015, the drinks industry has really focused on premiumisation. Craft beer, in general, has not gone that well, but then you see premium wines, premium craft distillers making this huge jump. Then the pandemic happened and it shuffled everything. In 2021, I think we’ll see people being more conscious about what they're drinking. I think their beverage experiences in terms of alcohol are going to change. It's not going to be just ‘drink because I feel stressed or sad’. People are going to find creative ways to have these drinking experiences at home because the holidays are coming and so on. The virtual gatherings, the virtual happy hours – that's something that brands can touch upon. If you're engaging with consumers at that level where you create a beautiful experience at home or are supporting those experiences at home, that’s become really important because people are trying to find creative ways to make their home lives a little bit better.

People are trying to not just buy anything and will be really conscious about the decisions they're making. And because they have a lot more time on their hands, they really research what they're spending their precious dollars on. In 2021, environmentally conscious people are going to be sourcing products or brands that communicate the message that they’re taking care of the planet. They want to know if a winemaker’s viticultural efforts are organic, biodynamic, and sustainable.

It’s been a year where people have tried to find alternative ways not just to drink, but to really work on their mental health and physiological health

There will also be a huge push for diversity, especially the rise of Black retailers and sommeliers and support for more diverse and minority businesses in general. We’re seeing a lot of young people interested in where things are coming from and wanting that explanation. We’re seeing people of colour getting more of the limelight and brands reaching new communities. The alcohol industry has traditionally been very narrow-minded in the way it advertises products, and investing in diverse communities will help to positively impact sales.

In 2021, spirits are to have a massive presence in the market because they’re more versatile and open than wine. This is because winemakers tend to engage consumers in restaurants and retailers and that’s suffered a huge blow in 2020. Brands that are trying to reach out and engage with consumers in direct-to-consumer channels work well, and 2020 has taught us that brands that don’t have an online presence are not going to be able to push sales because they don’t have those typical channels available. As a brand, you have to be engaging constantly and, sadly, only bigger brands have bigger budgets to do this. 

 has done an incredible job with this. Not only has it created digital activities to connect with American consumers directly, but it’s socially conscious and gotten into matters that people are interested in, donating to restaurant worker relief programmes when COVID hit and running a campaign during Black Restaurant Week.

For smaller or craft brands, investing in digital activities to engage their customers and partnering with sommeliers or influencers can spread the word of their authenticity. Having reputable ambassadors for brands is crucial, and having people that are more authentic will end up winning at the end. 

 is an excellent example of a brand that’s reaching its customers online and making it really accessible for people to find its products.

Anna Sulan Masing is an academic and a food, drink, and culture writer. Her PhD explored identity and storytelling. She co-founded Sourced, a public research project that explores people's relationships with food and drink. In 2021 she launched the global magazine 

 along with three other food and media professionals. Anna Sulan is one half of the podcast and event series Voices At The Table.

Lydia is a sommelier and WSET-Certified wine expert. Originally from Panama, she has worked in various areas of the wine industry, including retail, marketing, PR, and events. In 2017, she founded her private wine education, consulting, and tasting events company, Vino Concierge. In September 2020, Lydia co-launched a passion project called Hispanics in Wine, a social space dedicated to showcasing Hispanic/Latinx roots in the beverage and hospitality industries. Her expertise is frequently featured in renowned national and international wine trade and consumer-oriented publications.

Eve Turow-Paul is a world-leading expert on Gen Y and Z global food culture and founder and executive director of the non-profit Food for Climate League. Her latest book is 

. Through her writing, consultancy, and non-profit leadership, she helps companies and organisations connect the dots between culture, human behaviour, wellbeing, sustainability, and the food system to develop strategic products and campaigns that meet people's core human needs.

Global

Eating and Drinking

Will homes remain the main destination for food and drink experiences? How can diets help maintain mental health? And who will people turn to for their groceries? In this part of the 2021 Expert Outlook, we speak to three experts about how the events of 2020 are shaping eating and drinking habits.

Archie Rose: stirring the artisanal liquor craze

How stress is changing American tastebuds

Tony’s Chocolonely: ethical treats for comfort-eaters

Haus: D2C aperitifs for mindful drinkers